At the start of 2022, the VIO was 283 million units, compared with 279 million at the start of 2021, Campau said.
Meanwhile, new-vehicle sales for 2022 are forecast to reach about 14 million units, down from 15.1 million in 2021.
So how is the VIO growing? People are driving their vehicles longer, instead of scrapping them, he explained.
The scrappage rate, or the number of vehicles taken out of use and not registered, dropped to 4.2% at the beginning of 2022 and has been trending downward throughout the year.
"That 4.2% scrappage that started this year is one of the lowest we've had in the past 20 years," he said, adding, "That indicates that people are not taking vehicles off the road. … We've seen the highest residual value for used vehicles that we've seen in a very long time. There's demand for vehicles and people can't buy a new vehicle, they're buying a new-to-them vehicle on the used vehicle lot. And that's driven the cost of used vehicles higher. ...
"We're seeing more vehicles being repaired, being sold and staying in the fleet for a longer time."
This trend is also causing a continual increase in the average age of vehicles on the road.
"At the start of the year we were at 12.2 years average vehicle age. We've been going historical high after historical high for a number of years. This is a historical high," he said.
"And I can tell you what we're seeing now is we expect this number is going to go higher. ... We're seeing lower new vehicle sales and we're seeing the vehicle fleet grow. Along with that fleet growth is vehicles staying on the road longer. We're not adding more to the mix."
These trends are "very good news" for the aftermarket, Campau said, since people with older vehicles are willing to keep repairing and replacing parts to keep those vehicles running.
"The other good news for the aftermarket is that people are driving," he said, noting that in 2021, the number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) returned to pre-pandemic levels to about 3.4 trillion miles a year.
"We expect that number is going up this year. It's very moderate growth to 12,500 miles (average per vehicle) for a total of 3.5 trillion miles traveled in the U.S. in 2022."
S&P Global expected high gas prices earlier this year to stifle driving habits, but that hasn't been the case.
"The driving public seems to be, not happy about it, but they still seem to be getting out and driving and absorbing that increase in fuel prices," Campau said, noting that the VMT varies by region.
Campau pointed to five trends affecting the automotive aftermarket this year and going forward: