Tire dealers need good data, not ‘bro science'

COLUMBUS, Ohio – Successful tire dealers use data to reveal and get ahead of trends, but finding reliable information is a challenge.

"You have real tire knowledge, and you have bro knowledge, or bro science," Prize Udo, Pirelli Tire North America product training manager, told those attending the recent K&M Tire Dealer Conference & Trade Show in Columbus.

"You know what 'bro science' is? It's when everybody repeats the same wrong thing, until we believe it. … In the tire industry, there is so much of that that's going around."

Udo discussed the power of data and shared Pirelli's projections on PLT trends during a presentation Jan. 22 at the K&M conference.

Udo said Pirelli divides the auto industry into three tiers. On the bottom are the synergic or volume brands such as Chevrolet, Ford, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Jeep, Nissan and Toyota — the brands most Americans buy.

The middle tier comprises premium brands such as Acura, Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Land Rover, Lexus and Tesla.

And at the very top sit the prestige brands: Bentley, Ferrari, Maserati, Porsche and Rolls Royce.

"Those are all the cars that none of us can afford," Udo said. "Well, that most of us can't afford."

The synergic category is the largest, at 12.8 million new-vehicle registrations projected in 2025, however that's down from 14.3 million in 2019, and the decline is expected to continue, according to Pirelli's estimates.

The premium segment is growing by contrast.

There were 2.22 million premium new-car registrations in 2019, a number that crept up to 2.24 million in 2022, and is estimated to hit 2.88 million in 2025 and 3.32 million in 2028.

"After the pandemic, as these automotive manufacturers started to see which groups suffered, they realized that the premium car segment, those middle-class individuals, they don't suffer that much when you have an economic downturn," Udo said.

"You know who does suffer? Most of the consumers who buy the synergic brands."

In response, synergic brands such as Jeep and Kia are making models for the premium market, such as the topline Grand Wagoneer and Telluride. The trend has consequences for tire dealers because premium vehicles, along with EVs, have rim diameters of 19 inches and larger, Udo said.

"That is important for you to know, because if this is happening, you need to start prepping now to make sure that you can handle those cars when they start to age in the car parc," he said.

"That's why this information is important. I want you to look and see where the growth is and how you can capitalize on it."

Another trend for dealers to consider is the rate at which the car parc is aging. Synergic brand vehicles are getting older and staying on the road longer, while premium brand vehicles are getting newer, Udo said.

From 2019 to 2028, the average age of budget and synergic vehicles is projected to rise to 9.1 years from 8.5 years, while the average age of premium and prestige vehicles drops to 7.3 years from 7.9 years, according to Pirelli projections.

The reason was unclear, Udo said, but added leasing is one factor with consequences for tire dealers. Drivers who lease vehicles typically don't buy replacement tires.

"So that means that you need to start looking at those brands that are OE on the particular models that are coming into your shops," Udo said.

Of course, data is only as good as its source, and there's a lot of snake oil out there, said Udo, who encouraged dealers to leverage their relationships with tire manufacturers to gain better insight on trends.

And when dealers find reliable information, they need to act on it.

"When you get information, when you get data, when you get insight into something, if you react slow, you will go the way of the dinosaur," Udo warned.

"You will get left behind."