USTMA revises forecast upward for U.S. tire shipments

WASHINGTON — Buoyed by continuing growth in demand for replacement-market tires, the U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) has revised its forecast upward for U.S. tire shipments in 2024, adding to what promises to be a record year.

The agency projects that U.S. passenger, light and medium/heavy truck tire shipments will hit 338.9 million units, up 0.4% over 337.4 million units the group projected in mid-August as well as 2.1% ahead of the 2023 total (331.9 million units) and 1.1% ahead of the previous record set in 2021 (335.2 million units).

Replacement passenger, light truck and truck tire shipments are also projected to change by 1.4%, 5.8%, and 12.5%, respectively, with a total increase of 7.8 million units.

Truck tire shipments are projected to jump to 23.4 million units, up from 20.8 million units in 2023.

The USTMA's forecast contrasts somewhat with the most recent tire import data, which shows shipments of passenger and truck/bus tires from outside the U.S. slowed in the quarter ended Sept. 30, although imports through the first nine months are running ahead of the comparable 2023 period as well as at a pace higher than the USTMA's forecast.

At the same time, though, the trade group projects original equipment (OE) shipments for passenger, light truck and truck tires will drop by 2.6%, 14.6%, and 7% respectively, a total decrease of 800,000 units.

The USTMA did not provide any explanation for raising the aftermarket shipment forecast.