U.S. tire aftermarket to plateau in 2022

WASHINGTON — Aftermarket demand in the U.S. for tires will plateau in 2022 versus 2021, after posting double-digit increases last year over 2020, according to the U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) forecast.

Despite the forecast of marginal growth, aftermarket passenger and medium truck/bus tire shipments should set records, the USTMA said. Replacement market light truck tire shipments, on the other, are projected to fall slightly (0.3%).

Overall, the USTMA projects shipments in the three key areas it tracks (passenger, light truck and medium truck/bus) of 340.2 million units in 2022, up 1.5% over 2021 and 2.3% over 2019.

By contrast, shipments of original Equipment (OE) shipments for passenger, light truck and truck tires are expected to increase by 6.2%, 4.4%, and 6.3% respectively, the USTMA said, as U.S. vehicle production rebounds from a pandemic- and parts supply-affected down year in 2020.

The USTMA did not specific what factors it took into account in arriving at its forecast.

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By the numbers, the forecast shows:

Replacement market shipments —

• Passenger, up 0.9% (2 million units) to 226.8 million units;
• Light truck, down 0.3% (100,000 units) to 38.5 million units; and
• Medium truck/bus, up 1% (200,000 units) to 23.1 million units.

Original equipment —

• Passenger, up 6.2% (2.4 million units) to 39.8 million units;
• Light truck, up 4.4% (300,000 units) to 5.9 million units; and
• Medium truck/bus, up 6.3% (400,000 units) to 6.3 million units.

The USTMA did not comment on the prospects for domestic manufacturing versus imports.

Replacement market tire shipments grew by double-digits last year in all the sectors monitored, recovering to or exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

Original equipment tire shipments, on the other hand, while up over 2020, continued to lag the pre-pandemic 2019 figures, reflecting the supply-chain-related North American vehicle industry's production issues.

The USTMA bases its forecasts on input from its 13 tire manufacturer member companies.