BETHESDA, Md./RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. – The value of the U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to increase 8.5% this year over 2021, continuing a "stronger-than-expected" recovery from the pandemic, according to a new industry forecast.
The value of light-duty auto aftermarket sales is forecast to hit $356.5 billion this year, according to the "2022 Joint Channel Forecast Model" produced jointly by the Auto Care Association (ACA) and Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA).
In addition, the trade groups are forecasting an additional 5% growth in 2023 over 2022 and over 3% in 2024, bringing the value of the light-duty aftermarket to nearly $402 billion by 2025.
The compound average annual growth rate from 2019 to 2022 will be 5.7%, more than making up for losses seen in 2020 due to the pandemic, the groups said.
The joint ACA/AASA report comes roughly a week after the Specialty Equipment Market Association (SEMA) published its own assessment of the specialty parts aftermarket, which SEMA said exceeded $50 billion for the first time in 2021, driven by strong consumer interest in working on their vehicles.
Shane Norton of S&P Global Mobility will discuss the group's forecast in a joint, member-exclusive webinar June 9, at 1 p.m. EDT.
"Year after year, the auto care industry continues to show its strength and reliability," ACA President and CEO Bill Hanvey said.
"In the midst of the highest gas prices on record and an inflation rate at a 40-year high, coupled with persistent supply-chain disruptions and war in Eastern Europe, vehicle miles driven, vehicles in operation and consumer spending all increased in 2021 and are projected to increase into the coming years as well."
AASA President and CEO Paul McCarthy added: "The automotive aftermarket once again shows its resiliency with a stronger-than-expected recovery from the pandemic. In fact, the [value of the] automotive aftermarket rose nearly 25% in the past two years despite ongoing headwinds, and we are excited to see the landmark market size of $400 billion in 2025.
"But as the industry advances to that landmark number, look for a new challenge to emerge as we may shift from a market supported by high demand and availability to a battle for market share," he added. "With that, we'll see one more strength of the aftermarket emerge, collaboration with the right partners to ensure the same pace of success in this next phase of industry dynamics."
The market sizing and forecast are conducted on behalf of the ACA and AASA by S&P Global Mobility (formerly the automotive team at IHS Markit), a business intelligence firm.
The forecast is based on the U.S. Census Bureau's Economic Census; IMR Inc.; and proprietary data, economic analysis and forecasting models from S&P Global Mobility.
