BETHESDA, Md. — The value of the U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to drop 8.8% in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related factors, the Auto Care Association (ACA) and Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) are forecasting in a joint research study.
At the same time, the associations predicts that the value of light-duty aftermarket sales will rebound markedly in 2021, rising nearly 12% to $314 billion from $281 billion in 2020, according to their "2020 Joint Channel Forecast Model."
"The aftermarket has had a difficult first-half of 2020," ACA President and CEO Bill Hanvey said. "As industry businesses assess the impact and look to navigate the road ahead, there are a few certainties that provide a silver lining: DIY and e-commerce are growing during the pandemic, and early indicators show that that the average age of vehicles on the road will continue to rise as consumers hold on to their aging vehicles during economic uncertainty.
"Juxtaposing the data surrounding this event with other crises and observing these indicators further reinforce this industry's tremendous ability to bounce back from downturns and in many cases, take advantage of new opportunities presented to us through technology."
AASA President and COO Paul McCarthy added:
"Despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Joint Channel Forecast shows that the continued strength and resilience of the automotive aftermarket will lead to a brighter 2021,"
"Despite a year of immense challenges and uncertainty, the foundation of our industry's key drivers remains strong," Mr. McCarthy said. "Miles driven continue to rise as global economies reopen, new technologies continue to emerge, and the desire to be with friends and family will propel further car usage.
"We are still facing a lot of challenges, but this forecast confirms the essential attractiveness of the aftermarket. The aftermarket supplier community is continuing to work hard to try and support our customers and our essential industry, which, despite the crisis, remains a vibrant contributor to our economy."
The market forecast is conducted on behalf of the ACA and AASA by IHS Markit, a business intelligence firm. The forecast is based on the U.S. Census Bureau's Economic Census, IMR Inc., and proprietary economic analysis and forecasting models from IHS Markit.