LAS VEGAS — Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to account for about 30% of new car sales and 9% of vehicles in operation in the U.S. by 2030, numbers that are expected to increase rapidly thereafter, according to a new study commissioned by the Auto Care Association (ACA) and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA).
The report, the "2022 Joint EV Trends and Outlook Forecast," is an update of a study released in 2021 by consulting firm PWC Strategy&.
The previous report predicted EVs would account for 6% of vehicles in operation (VIO) in 2030; researchers now are projecting they will account for 9% by 2030.
While EVs are beginning to penetrate the U.S. car parc, the traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will maintain the majority share through 2040.
Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), meanwhile, will only account for less than 5% of the car parc going forward.
The associations noted that the growth of EVs presents vehicle repair shops with two challenges: Maximizing returns on their existing businesses,while in parallel growing new innovative businesses and preparing to take advantage of the new opportunities of electrification and technology.
Repair shops need to start to invest in the future, Carlos Thimann, a Strategy& partner, told attendees at the recent AAPEX in Las Vegas. "Not only in tools and equipment but training technicians to make sure they have the ability to service the EVs."
Independent repair shops also need to build consumer awareness of their abilities to competently service EVs, as EV owners tend to take their vehicles to a car dealership first for maintenance, he noted.
Shops need to market the their capabilities to the consumer to increase traffic to their bays, he said.
In the U.S., auto service shops have started investing in upgrading their tools and capabilities in states mandating sales of zero-emission vehicles (ZEV).
About 40% of the aftermarket service providers have started investing in EV capabilities, with larger shops leading the way, according to the report.
A majority of independent repair shops surveyed have seen an increase in the number of those vehicles coming to their shops for service. But overall, there are mixed opinions among independent shops as to the timing of BEV/HEV impact on the aftermarket, the report said.
In 2021, about 57% of non-warranty DIFM service for EVs involved tires and wheels.
About 39% of the EV non-warranty DIFM repairs were performed at new car dealerships, the report said, with 20% taken to tire dealer/auto repair shops, 15% to discount stores/mass merchandisers and 12% to independent repair shops.
"Though consumer awareness of HEVs/BEVs serviceability at repair shops is a critical component, small shop owners have not showcased a strong trend to invest in marketing efforts," the report said.
On average, EVs account for about 3% of customers for businesses with one to three bays versus 5.4% for businesses with eight or more bays.