KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — Global demand for natural rubber likely will fall marginally this year after increasing in 2022 by 2.9% over 2021, according to newly revised figures from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC).
The Kuala Lumpur-based trade group did not elaborate on reasons for its forecast for just shy of 15 million metric tons of demand. Separately, many major tire makers have projected lower volume sales this year.
The 2022 growth figure is measurably higher than the 1.6% the group reported in February, due to input from non-ANRPC member countries received since that earlier projection.
The increase from the preliminary estimate was due mainly to input from the the U.S., the European Union, United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Canada and Turkey, the ANRPC said.
Demand this year should fall about 0.1% to 14.9 million tons, the group said, despite anticipated increases in demand from China and India, two key NR consuming countries.
At the same time, the ANRPC is projecting global production of NR will fall 4% this year from 2022 to 14.9 million tons, creating near supply/demand equilibrium.
Production in 2022 of 15.5 million tons was a 3.1% improvement over 2021, the ANRPC's adjusted 2022 figures show. The figure reflects an improvement of 180,000 tons on the estimate offered in February, reflecting "better-than-expected" production in non-ANRPC member states.
Earlier this year, the ANRPC cautioned the markets that NR supply could be tight this year due in part to "circular leaf spot disease," which has plagued plantations in northern Indonesia and southern Malaysia.
