LAS VEGAS — Whatever you think it will take to move U.S. electrical vehicle (EV) adoption above 8%, the answer is yes. It will require everything.
And yes, EVs are still coming.
Experts discussed what role EVs and energy are playing in mobility today and how the future may shape adoption during ahead of the opening of CES in Las Vegas on Jan. 6.
Bryan Chance, global coordinating partner at Ernst & Young Global Ltd. (EY), led the discussion. He was joined on stage at Mandalay Bay Convention Center by Danita Park, an energy sector veteran and founder of Watt Strategy L.L.C.; Lara Cottingham, senior adviser for the U.S. Department of Energy's office of clean energy demonstrations; and Kevin Austin, group vice president in charge of logistics at Toyota Motor North America.
Austin said perspective is important in understanding the EV market. A decade ago, EVs made up around 1% of new car sales. Today, EVs make up around 8%.
In that same time, China has has grown and recently passed 50% of its new vehicle sales being EVs.
Reasons for slow U.S. adoption of EVs has been well-documented — including cost, choice, charging infrastructure and range, and a public that really loves internal combustion engines.
Toyota's strategy to encouraged EV adoption was by offering consumers many choices.
"We built what we call a 'multi-pathway solution,' a broad product portfolio that encompass hybrid products, plug-in battery electric and hydrogen vehicles," Austin said. "… It's about being pro-consumer choice and pro-carbon reduction."
The argument against EVs that there aren't enough models or choices, doesn't hold today, he said.
"Here we are in 2025, where there's over 80 different battery electric products for consumers to choose from in a market that is 8%," he said. "It's significant, 80-plus models in an 8% industry."
Several things must change to move past that 8% EV plateau, he said, noting China’s investment in infrastructure as one example.
“It’s been a massive investment in infrastructure. Five to 6 million charging stations, and over 70% of them are fast chargers,” he said. “The government has invested heavily in partnerships with companies to build out the EV supply chain that can help minimize cost structure and provide affordability to customers.
“That full ecosystem of policy, infrastructure, affordability, consumer confidence and education has been the key to drive adoption. I think the question for us in the U.S. is, can we do the same?”
Lara Cottingham from the Department of Energy said policy initiatives need to be creative collaborations.
“There’s so much opportunity to come together and to really think about what works best to build the solutions that are crafted to meet the needs of your communities,” she said.
Rebates and tax incentives are great to accelerate programs, but business models can’t lean on that funding as long-term source, she added.
Cottingham said when she worked with the City of Houston, they helped form an EV buying group because they didn’t have enough buying power to secure vehicles.
“All of these mayors had commitments to electrify their fleets, and they saw a challenge that they couldn’t actually purchase the vehicles.
“We saw this as well (in Houston), and so we put our heads together, and we created an EV purchasing collaborative so that cities and communities all across the country could come together and purchase vehicles.
“That was a policy decision that didn’t actually require a formal policy, but the cities couldn’t have done it on their own.”
Park said the energy sector should highlight how EVs offer efficiencies across the board.
“When you buy an electric vehicle in the U.S., you’re probably saving 14 cents on every mile you drive. When you drive 10,000 miles a year, $1,400, that’s real savings that I don’t think a lot of customers understand,” she said. “It’s also about emission savings. … Now, transportation is the leading cause of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, so helping customers understand that they can take action even just by moving from fossil vehicle to an electric vehicle.”
Finally, Park said promoting an EV ecosystem and helping people to understand it will be key to adoption. She believes that advanced EVs will be a part of the electric grid, not just pulling from it but also feeding it.
“The demand for electricity is happening so fast, and it takes a really long time to build a new gas, coal-power, solar plant, so how can we tap into all of these vehicles that are coming into people’s homes and fleets and workplaces, and turn those into grid assets?”
AI is the bridge for understanding all of the data and forecasting in real-time.
Looking ahead, Park said changes to the energy sector under a new administration will be more nuanced than most people may believe, because when it comes to energy needs of the U.S. in the future, everything will need to be pursued.
“We’re in a situation now where the electricity demand is growing so rapidly, one of the things that could happen — and we’re starting to see it in Texas — is it’s an ‘all of the above’ situation,” Park said.
The U.S. needs more sources of energy to be competitive, she said, and artificial intelligence can be a key to safely and efficiently manage it.
The Biden administration’s framework on energy was about decarbonization and diversifying the “energy stack,” she said. Park sees the Trump administration putting its focus in the energy sector on security.
“And that means it’s reliable, 24 hours-a-day, seven days-a-week. It’s affordable, and it is domestic,” Park said. “Some of the things that I would expect to see would have more of an emphasis on things that are domestic and clean.”
The most obvious clean sources are nuclear and geothermal energy, she said.
Solar and wind energy have momentum, accounting for 15% of all U.S. power produced, she added. But the main obstacle for solar is obtaining the critical minerals to build the panels.
“I would expect to see the (Trump) administration start to focus a little bit more on, ‘How do we onshore critical minerals that are required for batteries and solar? How do we refine it here, and how do we manufacture it here?’”
