USTMA 2023 forecast: Consumer up, commercial down

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) is forecasting marginal aftermarket shipment growth this year in passenger and light truck tires, while shipments of truck tires are expected to drop by 5.5% after two straight years of double-digit growth.

Replacement market shipments of passenger tires should rise 1% this year to 215.8 million units, following a 4.9% drop last year from 2021, the USTMA figures show. The 2023 shipment forecast falls 6.8% shy of the pre-COVID peak of 222.6 million units.

Aftermarket light truck tire shipments should increase 1.6% this year to 37.9 million units, after dropping 3.6% in 2022 from 2021. The 2023 shipments would be 16.3% higher than in 2019.

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After jumping 17% last year over 2021 to 26.6 million units, medium truck/bus tires shipments are expected to retrench in 2023 to 25.2 million units, the USTMA said. That level of shipments, though, is 33% higher than in 2019.

The forecast is similar on the original equipment side of the ledger — passenger and light truck tire shipments up slightly and medium truck/bus down slightly. OE passenger and light truck tire shipments should rise 2.3% and 1.3%, respectively, to 42.6 million and 6.4 million units.

OE shipments of medium truck tires, on the other hand, should slip 0.6% to 6.4 million units.

Overall, shipments are seen rising 0.7% to 334.2 million units.

The USTMA did not offer any commentary on the reasons for the shipment forecasts.