Tire company forecasts: No to low growth in 2023

AKRON — Following a relatively upbeat year in 2022, when most of the world's larger tire companies registered double-digit growth, the tire industry is bracing itself for a tough year in 2023, according to market forecasts culled from the leading tire makers' fiscal 2022 reports and trade association reports.

Among the larger tire makers globally, Bridgestone Corp., Continental A.G. and Michelin Group have issued cautious no- to low-growth outlooks for 2023.

Michelin said "in a context of strong economic uncertainties," tire markets should remain globally stable compared with 2022, with what amounts to a no-growth scenario in both the consumer (passenger/light truck) and commercial (medium/heavy truck) tire sectors, but with the caveat that volume sales could either fall or grow by as much as 2% versus 2022.

In the specialty markets (OTR, 2-wheeler, industrial, etc.), the projection covers a range of a 1% decline to 4% growth, based on continued growth in mining and agricultural tires, offset by slower demand in construction and materials-handling tires.

Bridgestone is forecasting a modest 1% growth in revenue globally, with consumer sales growth of 1% to 5% and commercial of 6% to 10%, with specialties rising 1% to 5%.

In North America, Bridgestone sees the consumer replacement market growing 1% to 5% with the commercial replacement market showing greater potential, 11% to 15% growth.

On the OE side, Bridgestone sees 11% to 15% growth in the consumer segment and 6% to 10% on the commercial side.

Goodyear, the No. 3 tire maker worldwide, did not make specific market forecasts for 2023, stating simply it expects steady growth this year as many outside factors, such as raw-materials costs and excess industry volume, should stabilize.

No. 4 Continental sees global demand for replacement consumer tires rising 1% to 3%, while in North America the market could shrink by up to 1% or grow by 2%. On the commercial side of the ledger, Conti is forecasting a decline in truck/bus tire demand by as much as 5% after robust 13% growth in 2022.

The leading tire makers' outlooks reflect to a high degree the U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) forecast for 2023, which shows marginal aftermarket shipment growth this year in the consumer sector, while commercial sector shipments are expected to drop by 5.5% after two straight years of double-digit growth.

Replacement market shipments of passenger tires should rise 1% this year following a 4.9% drop last year from 2021, the USTMA figures show.

Sumitomo Rubber Industries Ltd., No. 5 globally, did not issue an industrywide forecast, but cautioned in general that despite signs of recovery from the effects of COVID-19, there are concerns over economic growth, due to the geopolitical tension reflecting the situation in Ukraine, in addition to the high levels of inflation in certain regions and drastic interest rate hikes to appease such rise in prices.

Pirelli is projecting consumer tire sales will be flat compared with 2022, with increasing demand for larger-rim-diameter tires outweighing declining demand for smaller-sized tires, both at OE and in the replacement market.

Most of the other leading tire makers did not issue industrywide projections.