Numbers, they say, don't lie.
And if that's true, then, the numbers that appear in our 2022 Market Data Book tell a great story about the tire industry. In a nutshell, most aftermarket sectors not only have rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, but some have eclipsed it.
Here are some numbers to support that:
• Replacement market tire shipments grew by double-digits in all the sectors monitored: Passenger (up 10.3%); light truck (16.8%); and medium and heavy truck (19.3%);
• Original equipment shipments were up as well: Passenger (0.7%); light truck (4.9%); and medium/heavy truck/bus, up 25% (1.18 million units) to 5.9 million units; and
• U.S. passenger tire production increased 10.3% from 2020, but still trails 2019 output by 16 million units.
In the meantime, despite all the difficulties at ports and the imposition of elevated antidumping duties on certain Asian nations, imports grew in double digits in all sectors: passenger (10.4%); light truck tire (19.8%) and medium truck/bus tire imports, (31.8%).
Our numbers also show that the estimated value of the North American tire market increased almost 22% last year to just shy of $50 billion, with most every top tire maker reporting high double-digit sales growth.
Michelin Group remains the top manufacturer in terms of sales, slightly ahead Bridgestone Corp, while No. 3 Goodyear crept a little closer, boosted by its mid-year acquisition of Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.
As new car production continued to struggle, miles driven eclipsed 3.2 billion in 2021, nearly matching the 2019 total.
With cars getting used longer, and miles driven increasing that only can mean a more tires, more automotive service, more business for the independent tire dealer.
But with all this good news comes one cautionary three-letter word.
W-A-R.
For the first time since the 1940s, war has broken out in Europe. Who knows what the future holds in lieu of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. In the hours afterward, the stock market was reeling, as the Dow Jones lost 2%, before rallying later in the day.
The price of commodities also jumped in the hours after the invasion, as oil topped the $100 a barrel. Should that continue and gas prices soar even more, consumers likely will limit their travel. And the prices of tires, manufactured with oil components, could jump even more.
Maybe the conflict comes to a quick resolution. But at this stage, that seems very unlikely.
Numbers they say, don't lie. Let's hope when we report these numbers in February 2023, they are even better than the ones we just shared.