Industry faces significant hurdles to fully autonomous vehicles

AKRON — The dream world of autonomous vehicles offers limitless possibilities, but as manufacturers know, reality has its limits.

The technology needed to bring electric-powered autonomous vehicles (AVs) to life exists, but many hurdles need to be cleared before society's roads are populated with self-driving cars.

"The adoption of new technologies in transportation through history is interesting, and it's exciting to realize the industry is in another wave of innovation where no one knows exactly how it will play out," said Nizar Trigui, chief technology officer of Bridgestone Americas Inc.

"Just like history saw an overlap of horse and buggies alongside automobiles when they were first introduced, Bridgestone expects to see the public embrace fully electric vehicles more as the world develops to accommodate them."

AVs likely will have to be electric for both regulatory and engineering purposes. Electric vehicles (EVs) make up less than 1 percent of the global fleet, but the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) forecasts that figure will grow to 8 percent by 2030 thanks to investments by major original equipment manufacturers and government regulations driving fuel economy requirements.

Nevertheless, it will be some time — perhaps decades — before EVs gain a majority share.

"I think we're at least 20 years away from that shift to where the alternative propulsion methods become the majority," said Larry Williams, president of Henniges Automotive, which produces rubber automotive parts such as weatherstrips.

"We're moving in that direction, but it's a very small piece today. Even the ones who have publicly come out and said they're going to eliminate it are still 15 to 20 years out before they get to that point."

CAR Group CEO Carla Bailo said the main reason consumers aren't buying EVs is that the cost relative to other vehicles is too high, and she said those with longer range are simply not affordable. But range is a close second and, in some ways, goes hand-in-hand with price. Until consumers believe they can use an electric car to get wherever they want to go comfortably, it's a tough sell, Ms. Bailo said.

Shashank Modi, research engineer with CAR Group, said battery range is improving, and would take a huge leap if the industry switched to solid-state batteries, which are five times more energy dense and charge five times faster than a lithium-ion battery.

On the plus side, prices for batteries and driver avoidance systems keep coming down as manufacturers scale up and make chemistry advances. Ms. Bailo said that in a future economy, some parts might become commoditized if they become shared products, which could help bring prices down drastically in one area to allow for further investment elsewhere in the vehicle.

"Whatever the discussions are around E-mobility, the range expectation of the customer is the No. 1 priority we have to solve in order to make an E-mobility industry possible," said Frank Mueller, CEO of Vibracoustic North America L.P., which produces anti-noise and -vibration automotive parts.

Even if EVs become more affordable, there would need to be infrastructure improvements. Ms. Bailo said there are not enough charging stations for drivers to take an EV on a long trip confidently, and even if there were, the makeup of these stations would have to change.

EVs take anywhere from 20 to 30 minutes on average to charge fully, a lot longer than a quick trip to the gas station. These charging stops would need to be equipped with things to do.

Grid balance also will be key.

Ms. Bailo said the industry must work together with the power companies, which must push to make power renewable.

The U.S. grid is strained as it is, so power providers must price accordingly to encourage customers and fleets to charge during off-peak hours, 11 p.m. to 6 a.m.

Hurdles aside, electrification seems to be inevitable.

"The auto makers are still going to go with electrification," Ms. Bailo said. "It's going to happen because if you look what's happening in China and Europe, they need that portfolio across their model line. It's not going to slow down the development of those required propulsion systems."

The step from electric to self-driving vehicles is just as daunting. Ms. Bailo said the main issues with autonomous vehicles primarily have to do with communication.

Initially, there will be the impact of legacy vehicles that don't communicate at all. She said the average age of a vehicle on the road today is approaching 12 years and could get older thanks to the current debt ratio and loan lengths. Figuring out how a self-driving car communicates with these vehicles will be a significant challenge.

Infrastructure needs to be in place for vehicles to communicate, both to cloud systems and with one another. Ms. Bailo said rules and policies must be consistent across jurisdictions.

"You can't change a car's brain just because it changes across a county, city or state line," she said.

"We need to have the correct rules and processes in place. Right now, the technical side is sorely lagging."

AVs also give hackers another opportunity to wreak havoc on society. Ms. Bailo said there's no way to prevent hacking, but AVs can be equipped with reactionary defense systems to fight off attacks.

"The question becomes how much do you put in to prevent it, from both an infrastructure and vehicle side," she said. "More importantly, if you're hacked you need to be able to recognize it very fast and attack back. Managing that hacking is going to be the key to survival."

The biggest issue will be building trust with the consumer. Ms. Bailo said when cars were first developed and launched, people didn't trust them, but eventually came around. The same cycle likely will occur with autonomous vehicles.

In order to get there, however, regulators will need to determine how stringent the rules governing self-driving technology need to be. A painful reminder occurred in March when an autonomous Uber Technologics Inc. vehicle struck and killed Elaine Herzberg, a 49-year-old woman who was crossing a street in Tempe, Ariz.

Mr. Modi said part of the issue was the woman didn't know that Uber was being driven by a computer, underscoring the need for — at least initially — clearly labeling which cars are automated. But the other problem was that Ms. Herzberg was jaywalking, which Ms. Bailo said underscores another issue with autonomous vehicles: Humans don't always follow the rules.

"We program a vehicle to follow the rule, but if the rule isn't followed it makes the programming of that product extremely difficult," Ms. Bailo said. "So we need to decide if we're going to put more strenuous rules in place to allow for the programming to be done with some degree of control."

Experts expect AV technology to evolve quickly. Mr. Trigui said technology allowing the driver to concentrate on other things — such as a book or a movie — while still being ready to step in at a moment's notice should reach the market during the next 10-15 years.

But significant advancements will be required before the driver truly can disengage. "The industry will still have a long journey toward the elusive level of a full-autonomous vehicle, without a steering wheel or pedals," Mr. Trigui said.