Plugging into a future of driverless vehicles

AKRON — Cars long have been considered a symbol of freedom, and soon that freedom will extend to the driver.

A future where electric-powered, autonomous vehicles (AVs) are the norm has forced the automotive industry into rapid change. Suppliers are re-aligning themselves to prepare for these game-changing technologies, and some say they may begin to manifest within the next 10 years.

Industry stakeholders certainly are cautious, as several hurdles must be overcome before this dream world of self-driving cars becomes a reality. For starters, less than 1 percent of the global fleet consists of electric vehicles (EVs), basically a prerequisite to self-driving cars.

"Electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles go hand-in-hand," said Shashank Modi, research engineer at the Center for Automotive Research (CAR). "Electric platforms enable a lot of autonomous features because you already have those wiring harnesses in place."

Hurdles aside, Matt Chapman, vice president global marketing and E-mobility, automotive sales at Freudenberg-NOK Sealing Technologies, said the adoption of EVs is inevitable. CAR Group, which studies the automotive industry, outlined that fully AVs will account for fewer than 4 percent of new sales by 2030, increasing to more than 50 percent by 2040. As for EVs, those will comprise only 8 percent of the market by 2030, but will grow rapidly beyond that.

Tesla is the best-known brand on the EV market, but OEMs such as the Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., Honda Motor Co. Ltd. , Volvo Car Corp. and Daimler A.G. have funneled billions toward new electric models to join the fray in the coming years.

"It's got to be one of the most substantial technology shifts in the last 20 years," said Chris Couch, vice president of innovation and product groups at Cooper Standard Automotive Inc., which produces rubber products such as seals and hoses.

"I think it's a great time to be in our business because it's a chance to bring some material science to this problem. There's huge opportunity, and that is to make lighter parts, which you need for EVs because every ounce counts in terms of the vehicle range, and it's got to be quiet. Those two things can be contradictory with the old materials we used to use. We need new and better materials to achieve those."

Shaping the future

OEMs are busy dealing with the billion-dollar question: What will an autonomous vehicle look like?

"This is going to be the interesting point for me," CAR Group CEO Carla Bailo said. "What will make a person buy a certain brand and what will be the new brand identity? The pleasure of driving and all those things we used to care about are gone. So why will you pick a product from Ford or GM or Google? It's going to come down to what that autonomous pod offers."

That pod could offer several things. When the need to focus on the road is eliminated, OEMs can insert a variety of new features. Whether that's an entertainment center for the movie buff, a living room for the family, an office for the work commuter or a yoga studio for the fitness guru will depend on customer needs. The person making a quick trip probably won't care about luxurious features but will want the ride to be comfortable, clean, smooth and affordable.

With so many different avenues, it's possible that these pods ultimately could become customizable shells in a ride-sharing economy. The same pods that shuffle work commuters during rush hour transform into party rides for the evening dweller. Mr. Modi said stakeholders already are investing to develop anti-microbial and anti-scratch materials to limit the amount of wear the interiors take.

"We have to think about a world, when we go to an autonomous vehicle, like an airplane," Mr. Bailo said. "You keep them a long time, but you're replacing a lot of stuff all the time. The fundamental shell can be kept for a long while, but you're replacing a lot of wear."

Which means parts will need to last longer. What those requirements will look like remains to be seen.

"There is no car out there produced for car sharing just yet," said Vibracoustic CEO Frank Mueller, whose company makes anti-vibration and noise reduction components.

"The thinking we have is clearly these parts will have to have a higher durability, though. They are going to have higher mileage on them, and their use will be much more rigid. Considering all of those things — and they won't want to have breakdowns — it's more likely than not that durability will be the top requirement. And that sometimes will come at a tradeoff to comfort."

Compound interests

The good news for rubber product manufacturers is that their products aren't going anywhere. While there might be less applications in some areas, the car still will need the basic staples of seals and hoses, and in some instances losses will be offset by added opportunities elsewhere.

Randy Stone, president of DuPont Transportation and Advanced Polymers unit, said the next 10 years look very promising for rubber product makers, as this transition will bring the best of both worlds — a rise in hybrids. Those vehicles have significant added requirements of electric batteries with basically the same rubber content of a traditional combustion engine.

Traditional powertrains will continue to play a significant role in the market until 2030, when Mr. Stone and most industry forecasters see EVs beginning to make gains. And while Mr. Stone said those vehicles ultimately will have more rubber content per vehicle, companies won't be able to rest on their laurels. They'll need to win that business.

"Polymers and rubber elastomer products have a good future, but it's going to be very competitive to go get that business," he said.

Eugenio Toccalino, DuPont's global director for automotive, said new opportunities include electromagnetic shielding; noise, antivibration and harshness applications; and thermal management.

Companies like DuPont and Freudenberg-NOK are leveraging their knowledge from other industries, finding those technologies have a place in this new automotive world. Mr. Chapman said Freudenberg's flame retardant materials used in aerospace can apply to battery systems within electric vehicles.

DuPont's electronics business also brings materials that can be customized to work within EVs, Mr. Stone said. DuPont recently expanded capacity for its high-temperature nylon compounds, adding that adhesives also will play a critical role.

"There's going to be more complexity," Mr. Toccalino said. "A lot of the technology we talk about when we talk about electric or autonomous vehicles could and will come in from consumer electronic applications. If you think about the development cycle there versus the lifecycle of an automobile, they're very different. But this is where we have a fantastic opportunity because we play in both."

Joe Mannino — senior vice president of technical at Toyoda Gosei Co. Ltd., which produces rubber weatherstrips and other interior and exterior plastic parts — said EVs require additional cooling, which his firm projects will mean more opportunities for rubber tubing and plastic cooling hoses.

"I think from our standpoint the good news is the car still needs seals," said Larry Williams, president of Henniges Automotive Inc., which makes weatherstrips for automotive sealing applications. "We don't see the content reducing, we actually see it increasing."

Though that increase comes with a caveat — lightweighting, a trend that will only increase with EVs and autonomous vehicles. Mr. Williams said a lighter vehicle helps extend the range of an electric battery, one crucial hurdle OEMs must overcome to gain public acceptance of these vehicles.

There will be more pressure on suppliers to make those parts with lighter elastomeric compounds while still maintaining or enhancing quality, placing an emphasis on material science development.

"The companies that have the material science innovation to back it up will do well and the ones that don't will not," Mr. Couch said. "You can't fake your way into it by changing the shape of parts. It's a material science question."

TG and Cooper Standard already have developed new polymers to address OEM needs. Toyoda Gosei released a next-generation smart polymer that can alter its shape based on electrical signals. It displayed this E-rubber at the Tokyo Auto Show in 2017.

Cooper Standard unveiled Fortrex, a compound that provides both a 50-percent noise reduction while also reducing the weight compared to a traditional EPDM.

"The OEMs are spending a great deal of resources on future technologies," Mr. Mannino said. "That means automotive suppliers will be needed for future contributions to research and development. We take this trend as an opportunity for further business growth. We're developing new plastic and rubber materials, and new adaptations of these materials to meet the needs of future vehicles."

Mr. Mueller also is not worried about electric and autonomous vehicles because, like with traditional models, they will require noise, anti-vibration and harshness products, if not more so when driving isn't the main focus of anyone in the car.

If the vehicle lacked a critical anti-vibration or noise dampening component, like an air spring, passengers would feel it immediately. And with electric engines generating no noise compared to their internal combustion counterparts, the newfound silence accents other hums and whistles elsewhere—primarily from the road and wind.

"We believe there is a lot of opportunity because the need for comfort is going to be a lot bigger than it is today," Mr. Mueller said. "The sensitivity is going to be much higher than it is now. Rubber, especially natural rubber, is still the best damping material. There's no better material out there."

Common tread

Tires are the first line of defense against those bumps disturbing the passenger. Chuck Yurkovich, senior vice president of global research and development for Cooper Tire & Rubber Co., said tire-to-road interaction, tread pattern and tire cavity noise all become more noticeable in quieter vehicles.

"Tires can add to or detract from cabin noise depending on the air flow and cabin acoustics," he said in an email. "As vehicles get quieter, tires will also need to get quieter. When designing for quieter tires, improvements in design, construction and materials are all critical. Improvements in uniformity will also aid in this development effort."

Nizar Trigui chief technology officer for Bridgestone Americas Inc., said in an email that tire makers need to consider how their current and developing solutions — such as low rolling resistance tires, run-flat technology, non-pneumatic tires and investments in software and sensors — will equip the vehicles of the future.

Tires will need to evolve to meet the demands of future vehicle technologies. Mr. Trigui said that will include advancements in tire technology, the vehicles themselves and how both are used.

"Today, cars are the ultimate driving machine to get from one point to another, but in the future, cars will evolve from the ultimate driving machine into the ultimate riding machine," he said. "The focus for vehicles will be on the riding experience more than before, so products that offer NVH and continuous mobility are important."

A Goodyear spokesman said in an email that the global population drives about 10 trillion miles a year. That's expected to double by 2030 thanks to trends toward EVs, autonomous vehicles and ride sharing. All of those trends play favorably for tire makers, as he said with electric vehicle forecasting alone there are expected to be 57 million tires on such cars by 2020.

Durability will be a key demand because EVs are heavier thanks to their battery packs. The spokesman said they also have a higher torque going to the wheels from electric motors. This means the tires can wear out anywhere from 10-30 percent faster than when used on internal combustion engines.

"As we look ahead to what's required in future mobility, we're planning for the curve in the road ahead, and we're working with the OEMs to be ahead of that curve," he said. "Our anticipation is to be on those next-generation vehicles that will come to our dealers' stores, just like they're coming today."

Extra senses

If the car is going to drive itself, it will have to know when there is a problem immediately. Parts of the future will need to communicate with the vehicle in a timely manner, and that means they will be integrated with sensors.

"These concepts are getting more and more traction from the customers," Mr. Chapman said. "They need to find ways to measure and understand what's happening in their vehicle in real time. A lot of these things we've seen as concepts are starting to become a reality.

"That's only going to increase as we look at more connectors and systems that require electricity or some form of communication from inside of a housing to outside of a housing. From a sealing perspective, we're usually there in that kind of environment and we can help ensure those connections and passthroughs can be made."

Freudenberg-NOK already has developed radial shaft seals equipped with sensors, along with plug-in seals that measure temperature, pressure and flow. But Joe Walker, global technology director, materials and laboratories at Freudenberg-NOK, said that these new sensors—combined with the rise of infotainment systems in automotive—create another noise reduction problem: Radio frequency interference (RFI).

Disruptive RFI between components could throw off important systems in the car, which could have devastating consequences if, say, the adaptive cruise control was compromised. Or if the door didn't stop closing when a passenger entered a driverless vehicle.

"Sensors are going to play a significant role," Mr. Williams said. "Somehow they've got to figure out with a vehicle that is unattended how to appropriately put the safety features in so a child isn't harmed. That's the last thing any auto maker is going to want. How do you prevent a 10-year-old from getting into a vehicle and making sure that vehicle is safe for someone who is unaware of the surroundings?"

Tires will need to be equipped with sensors, too, but the Goodyear spokesman said this is nothing new. Interpretation of that data to enhance the vehicle's driving capabilities, however, will be. The firm has partnered with Tesloop Inc., a city-to-city mobility service that exclusively uses Tesla electric vehicles, to help run those fleets better.

Part of the process is combining the data gathered with Goodyear's algorithms to predict tire wear, eventual replacement and smart scheduling of needed service. Mr. Yurkovich said the smart tire will become a component integrated with the vehicle system, linked with other components that provide electronic readings. Mr. Trigui said sensors will be used to monitor both the environment the vehicle is driving in and the vehicle itself.

Digitalization makes it possible to enhance the smoothness of the ride through adaptive systems. Mr. Mueller said Vibracoustic's NVH components also will have to become smarter, anticipating the need to read the surface, adjust and put the right kind of damping into the mount before the car hits a pothole.

"Bridgestone anticipates sensing technology will soon be embedded throughout the vehicle — including intelligent tires with sensors, electronics and a control algorithm — to be integrated into a complete vehicle monitoring ecosystem," Mr. Trigui said.

Public acceptance

Almost everyone interviewed agreed: This is a "when," not "if," situation with regard to EVs. Mr. Walker said now anywhere from 20 to 40 percent of EV sales are generated thanks to incentives. And global regulations will continue to drive the industry toward an electric future.

"There's no doubt that this conversion is going to happen," Mr. Stone said. "I think it's unclear as to how quickly it's going to happen."

Consumer acceptance may be the biggest obstacle. Mr. Bailo said EVs are struggling to gain public trust for reasons such as lack of a charging infrastructure, limited battery range and affordability.

Level 3 self-driving vehicles — which allow the driver to divert attention away from the road and answer a text or watch a movie while staying ready to intervene at a moment's notice — should be making their way to the road in the coming model years. But estimates vary as to when fully autonomous cars will become widespread.

"This will likely be a long-term transition as the public will need time to accept and trust this technology," Toyoda Gosei's Mr. Mannino said.

That trust took a big hit in March when an Uber Technologies Inc. vehicle operating in autonomous mode struck and killed Elaine Herzberg, a 49-year-old-woman who was crossing a street in Tempe, Ariz. The incident caused Uber Technologies to suspend its autonomous vehicle pilot programs and all stakeholders to take a step back and evaluate the development of this technology.

"What happened in the Uber case is the person didn't know that the vehicle was being driven autonomously," Mr. Modi said. "So how does a pedestrian know that a particular vehicle is autonomous. Do we need visible signs on the car for that? There should be some standardization so people can know which vehicles are autonomous and which ones are not."

CAR found that younger people are more open to autonomous technology. Citing a study — conducted prior to the Uber fatality — CAR said 40 percent of respondents aged 25-34 are comfortable with full autonomy, compared with just 23.4 percent for those 45-54 and 11.9 percent for those 55-64.

The public probably won't have to make that choice for at least 10 more years, maybe closer to 15, Mr. Williams said, but with all the resources being dedicated to making autonomous vehicles a reality, it would be unwise to bet against the industry overcoming these obstacles and bringing them to fruition. It's just a matter of finding riders.

"I think it's going to be a generational thing," Mr. Walker said. "For me, it's a crapshoot whether or not my PC boots up in the morning. A guy who was brought up in a different world will have a hard time embracing sitting inside a car and having this thing do its thing. It's like everything, it was hard for people to get used to cruise control, but it happened. I think it might be slower for some, but I think it's eventually going to be embraced."