Technology disrupting tire, auto industries

HILTON HEAD ISLAND, S.C. — In a time of rapid technological and market change, tire makers have to be ready to implement a number of scenarios to ensure solid technology and business development, according to James A. Popio, vice president of operations, North America for Smithers Rapra.

"The automotive industry is changing faster than any other time in its history," he told those attending the 34th Clemson University Global Tire Industry Conference, held recently at Hilton Head.

"Global dynamics and social dynamics are changing quickly," Mr. Popio said. "The future is not clear, so we must be ready for any number of scenarios."

Global economic, health and trade policies are helping to fuel the rapid change in markets, the Smithers Rapra exec said.

Growth in China is slowing, but the value of the global gross domestic product is expected to rise more than 3 percent for the next five years, he said.

There also are many uncertainties in international trade and development, according to Mr. Popio. Tariffs on Chinese tires combined with potential U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs to make the picture on trade unclear, he said.

Brexit, the U.S. exit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the threatened U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement have caused shifts in the global trade outlook, Mr. Popio said, as have changes in global tire manufacturing, highlighted by transfers of production from China to southeast Asian nations and recent investments in Eastern Europe and the U.S.

With expanding market shares in North America for SUVs and sports cars, high-performance, specialty and premium tires now are much more in demand.

The growing acceptance of electric-powered vehicles is creating higher load demands because of heavy battery packs, while the development of autonomous vehicles is creating impetus toward fuel efficiency, higher performance, reliability, durability and intelligence via sensors, he said.

Low-rolling-resistance, runflat and winter tires are more popular than ever, he said. Global urbanization is driving growth in demand for motorcycle tires, while sales of OTR tires are rebounding after years of decline.

With the changing portfolio of tire performance characteristics come changes in the materials used to make tires.

Photo
Tire Business photo by Miles Moore

Popio

Increasing interest in low rolling resistance is raising demand for high-density silica and solution SBR; sustainability issues are opening avenues for orange oil, biomass and alternative natural rubber sources such as guayule and dandelions; and demand for lighter-weight tires is driving development of new materials and inner liner improvements.

The five top trends affecting tire technology, according to Mr. Popio, are:

  • Electric vehicle development and market expansion;
  • Autonomous vehicle development;
  • Intelligent tire development;
  • Shifts in consumer business models, such as ride sharing and subscription models; and
  • Increased mobility and urbanization in developing countries.

All of these trends present opportunities to tire makers, and all of them present different growth scenarios in which effective use of technology are a must, according to Mr. Popio.

There are many different questions that must be answered in each area, he said.

"If electric vehicles increase in market share, will the U.S. follow the lead of China, Germany and other EU countries?" he asked. "How does battery technology affect vehicle weight and range? How will extreme cold and hot weather affect vehicle performance?"

The one certainty, Mr. Popio said, is that tire design requirements will have to change to accommodate technology.

Tire designs also must change as vehicles change to full and nearly full autonomy, according to Mr. Popio.

There are the questions of how much data will be needed from tires to achieve vehicle autonomy; how easy it will be to integrate information from tires with other technologies in the vehicle; what level of tire sensing will become mainstream; and how will retrofits and the aftermarket deal with sensor replacement.

The global tire industry is solid and growing, though in some pockets more than others, Mr. Popio said in conclusion.

"Tire technology needs to adapt to revolutionary change in automotive technology, revolutionary business models, and urbanization and mobility increases," he said.

"Scenario planning will assist technology and business development."

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