Sumitomo aims 'to grow with whole of market'

Tire Business talked with Darren Thomas, Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing for Falken Tire Corp., a unit of Sumitomo Rubber North America Inc., about his thoughts on the tire industry and how his company is performing heading into the second half of the year.

Q : How would you describe the tire business in the U.S. so far?

A: In terms of demand, it has been stable. There's been noise, but we will call that "noise without action," so the consolidation in the market is just a bunch of noise, a way to get people talking that may or may not manifest itself into something bigger. Excluding Goodyear's actions with ATD, the majority of the dealer base and overall demand have both been stable.

 Q: Have you seen any surprises this year?

A: The three little mergers/acquisitions are all surprises. The Michelin/TBC one actually makes a lot of sense to us simply because, on a financial level, TBC was the largest overall asset of Sumitomo Corp. (a totally separate entity from us). So, for them to divest a portion of that investment to Michelin, who always strives to be closer to the retail transaction, makes sense.

How that affects TCi and their strategy wholesale still remains to be seen because TCi and Carroll Tire went to the market very differently. It is yet to be seen how brands start to align themselves with those channels and how TCi treats those brands.

In our opinion, TCi has always been a bit more aggressive with products that are not wholly owned by Michelin, so it will be interesting to see how they conduct themselves in the market. As of now it's just a watch-and-see situation though we would expect them to be very competitive because that is why you create an endeavor such as this.

Q: Do you expect to see more joint ventures and mergers?

A: Yes, we believe a lot of things are going to fall into place. The question is how many of them happen out of haste and, really, what the long-term game plan is because even from our end, we don't quite see the logic between a Bridgestone-Goodyear joint venture.

We see those two as worldwide competitors, so in the largest market in the world, for them to become a joint venture seems odd to us. And we've never seen 50-50 work out well, especially when its 50-50 between two of the biggest competitors in the world. It's going to be interesting, but I think there's a story yet to be told there.

At this point in time, the biggest surprise is how quickly Goodyear made a stand, essentially against ATD, and the repercussions of that are interesting because Goodyear essentially, in our opinion, did that before they were prepared to what I'll call "actually service the customer."

The independent tire dealers found themselves with less options to buy Goodyear than they had the day before it was announced; that's not a good thing for the actual consumer or the independent dealer.

Q: Where do you see the market heading the rest of the year?

A: Well, we don't expect any surprises. We're at full employment right now, about 3.5 to 4 percent, and interest rates are steady. Barring anything that's outside of anyone's control, things continue look very stable.

Q: What trends are you seeing in the marketplace?

A: Other than the obvious, consumer preference shift to CUVs, Ford's decision to do away with anything based on a car platform, virtually shifting everything to CUV, was interesting to us. Primarily because we see Toyota, Hyundai and Honda absolutely taking that sedan market by storm. It leaves us curious why the domestic manufacturers would completely walk away from it, but it may be a great strategy if that's where their strength is.

Other than that, the real trends we're interested in watching are all the moves that are less product-based and more distribution-based as second-tier companies now start to evaluate their distribution options long-term. That will be the biggest paradigm shift we see over the next 12 months. It's not going to be related to products in the marketplace.

Q: How is Sumitomo reacting to this trend?

A: Sumitomo Rubber North America has a very strong independent dealer base. Our independent dealer base is fragmented, which is good. We have a very great relationship with ATD, so it's in our interest that they survive.

Ultimately what we are going to watch is the balance between the strength of the manufacturer and the strength of the distributor, and right now both parties need each other. Because the first tier is going to create its own channel, which it is starting to, right? TireHub and NTW, is an example of the first tier creating its own path to the market. Doing that, they become less aligned with regional distributors. Therefore, regional distributors need brands and the brands that remain are second-tier brands.

The second-tier brands are going to need options in the event that something happens to ATD. As much as we love ATD and have a great relationship with them, anyone who loses 50 percent of their business because of a change in the market is going to have challenges. Can they make adjustments? Of course they can, but over time, obviously, any good company is going to have countermeasures and other options. Those other options are simply going to be regional distributors. So the regional distributor is going to become more important. Not that they aren't important now, but they will become vitally important.

So, both second-tier and regional distributors are going to be in a lot of conversations over the next 12 months all trying to hedge their positions.

Q: Is Sumitomo hoping to fill the void of Goodyear products no longer sold through ATD?

A: Falken brand is essentially always sold to ATD. Our products are relatively price-positioned and do not necessarily compete against Goodyear's products.

I would say that Goodyear is the least disciplined in their pricing model, which means that in any particular segment they will operate from a price index of 100, which is where they should be, down to 65 with other Goodyear products. And when they go down to somewhere between 65 and 85, now they're in the Falken price zone, or they're in the second-tier price zone. You do not see that occur with Michelin, you do not see that occur with Bridgestone.

Goodyear is the only one that has a very, very wide pricing window. There will be some places like light truck and SUV where the Falken brand actually does challenge Goodyear pricing, and we believe we're going to receive some of that business.

Tires are channel specific, so if those were Goodyear retailers that were beholden to the Goodyear brand, they've got a bigger paradigm shift than just to look at Falken vs. Goodyear. They've got a bigger decision to make, and all brands will be looking at that.

Someone is going to fill that void in the event Goodyear can't circle back with the regional distributors and get service to those customers.

In the short term, Goodyear did not have enough distribution in place to fill the void. So ATD is going to need something because they're going to have demand, and Goodyear can't respond quick enough. We're definitely hoping that dealers that were buying Goodyear at that 75 percent index price will consider our brand.

Q: What tire sectors are looking strong this year?

A: Everything from touring to ultra high performance is now becoming one blurry segment. I would call it the traditional grand touring segment, which is now everything T, H and V (rated), 50- and 55-series. Those products are sellingvery well. All-terrain continues to be a great segment.

Medium truck is doing very well right now. We just don't see any segment that is really struggling. All the segments are behaving in predictable ways right now. For us the light truck market continues to be strong because previously we didn't have a large share, (and) now we have one of the best tires in the market and it's doing great for us and our distribution.

Q: Is the popularity of CUV/SUVs impacting the UHP market?

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Thomas

A: It definitely does because ultra high performance was 50-, 55-series, 17-, 18-inch. That was traditional high performance 40-45 series. But now the amount of 40-55-series, 17, 18 and 19 has just exploded, and those are on every vehicle on the road. Therefore, if you're going to define ultra high performance, you also have to say it's only summer tires.

If it's a summer tread design, you can be pretty sure it's an ultra high performance tire or if it's below 40 series, it's an ultra high performance. But when it comes to 45 series and above that could be in touring, or ultra high performance, it could be anywhere right now.

CUV customers are looking for a size and a price, and hopefully have a brand preference. They are less concerned about performance and more concerned about mileage warranty and potentially safety issues such as wet traction. Those customers are going to be more safety- and value-oriented, and less concerned about performance.

Q: Do you think UHP is losing popularity?

A: Traditional ultra high performance included these aftermarket image performance tires, on an aftermarket basis that's now being primarily dominated by third-tier. True ultra high performance, for example replacement tires to a Mercedes S-Class or an Audi A6, are going to be dominated by first and second tier as OE replacements.

Now there appears to be a ‘no man's land' in ultra high performance which is a medium-priced, first replacement product sold by the second tier — ultra high performance no man's land.

Ultra high performance is still a great category, but the way it breaks down by price is getting blurred in the second tier.

Q: Is Sumitomo impacted by this trend?

A: We definitely have been because between 1999 and 2008, we were one of the dominant players in ultra high performance. But, that was defined by what I'll call aftermarket performance, so our strength in true ultra high performance is relatively small right now. Until we bolster our OE applications, it will continue to be a less and less important part of our business.

That doesn't mean we don't sell a ton of them, because we do. But we do not sell a large quantity of ultra high performance summer tires. If we talk about the traditional ultra high performance tires that go on BMWs or similar vehicles, we definitely own a large segment of the marketplace. Though we don't necessarily call that ultra high performance anymore; that's really grand touring.

Q: What does Sumitomo want to focus on?

A: SRNA wants to grow with the whole of the market. We have no interest in being specialists in one given category. Ten, fifteen years ago that was our endeavor, but now that we do not have restrictions on our Falken brand in North America. Our goal is to be a meaningful brand in every segment, not only just one specific segment.

In order for our regional distributors to do well with our products, we need to sell in trailer-load quantity, and we need to be able to capture 80, 90 percent of the market demand with our brand so the dealer can rely on us.

In order for our regional distributors to do well with our products, we need to sell in trailer-load quantity. This strategy enables us to capture 80, 90 percent of the market demand with our brand so the dealer can rely on us.

This means great HTs and ATs, great medium truck, great high performance, great grand touring. It means that in all those segments we need to have good products.

As the market changes, we don't want to be held to any one segment because if the market changes in that segment then we'll be at risk. Essentially the greater overall story of the Falken brand is that our regional distributors are beyond double-digit growth for the last two years running and it's because our dealers can buy us and sell successfully in every segment, not solely ultra high performance.

Because of the consolidation in the marketplace among distribution, the brand that has the best breadth of product in every segment and the cleanest distribution model becomes the most valuable to the regional distributor.

Q: Have the tariff increases impacted your business?

A: Right now we'll call it noise, again. Ironically it has allowed the third tier to take price increases with distribution because they can raise their prices so long as it's less than the net of the increase.

What impact is it on Falken brand? Very little because we actually do not sell a lot of products in the third-tier price zone. We do offer Ohtsu, but the Ohtsu price does not compete with third-tier imports that were impacted by tariff changes. We don't believe tariff changes are going to make significant shifts in the distributors' business because they've already seen the tariff cycle and its impact on their business. Most dealers recognize that tariffs come and go, and you have to understand the risks when buying that product.

We know that dealers count on stability and reliability. Those are the two most important things because the independent tire dealer can sell tires regardless. Its impact on the Falken brand and Sumitomo North America is negligible.

Q: Have you seen any impact of the federal tax cuts?

A: At this point in time that is the type of noise that goes to the marketplace, and that's the type of noise that rarely actually makes an impact on the consumer in the here and now. Does it affect consumer confidence? I'm sure it can but I have yet to ever see the tire industry correlate that type of information. Those pieces of information, I would call tire business rhetoric.

That's the thing tire CEOs and executives use to explain why they're having problems in the marketplace, but the fact of the matter iseverybody is working. Unemployment is 3.8, 3.9 percent, the population has cash flow, and as long as they're driving, tires will be purchased.

Q: Any plans for investments for the rest of the year?

A: Our largest investments are already under way, and that's our focus on our Buffalo (N.Y.) facility. That is purely incremental production for us and that's domestic light truck and medium truck, so it's a huge windfall of capacity.

We just have to make sure that we execute on our transfer plans so that our dealers don't see any disruption in service. Right now we have a very robust demand from our dealers, so the additional capacity is very beneficial. We just need to do the best job possible of aligning our demand and that new capacity in order to take advantage of the momentum that we have in the marketplace.

Q: Do you foresee tire price increases in the second half?

A: Falken took a price increase in January and then one again in May. We've done that not as a result of materials but simply as a result of the relative price of our brand and where it needs to be in the second tier.

That price increase was, to be honest with you, a response to what we will call the volatility and the lack of discipline with the rest of the second tier, primarily Korean brands. We needed to stabilize our brand among our distributors, so the price increase did that for us.

If we look at the quarterly results, both Goodyear and Cooper spoke to raw materials having an impact on their returns. Cooper posted 75 percent less profitability than the previous quarter. Our belief remains that price increases are more than likely imminent but unfortunately the forecast or the tire manufacturers association shipment results compared to last year, leave executives pessimistic, so they are probably fearful to take an increase.

Q: Do you foresee raw material prices stabilizing?

A: If we look at the last 52 weeks, as they've come down from the second quarter of last year, they've been very stable. At this point we do (expect them to remain stable).

Q: What are some of the challenges for the tire industry going forward?

A: It's simply going to be distribution planning. How we adjust our distribution model to make sure there's uninterrupted tire flow to the independent tire dealer is the paramount subject. Right now we have a very healthy mix between independent dealers, national retailers and national distributors, but if any portion of our, or any other brand's, three-prong approach stumbles, those are very large moves that company will have to make. So unfortunately the biggest changes we will probably have to deal with we won't know about until the day we read about it in the news.

Q: What advice would you give to dealers trying to maneuver through these changes?

A: Our advice to the independent dealer is to do exactly what they see Falken Tires do, and that is to recognize who its ultimate customer is. Our ultimate customer is not actually the consumer.

Falken Tires' ultimate customer is the independent tire dealer. The independent tire dealer's ultimate customer is the consumer. That is why you see us step away from Major League Baseball, national advertising because we believe the power is held with the dealer who sells to that actual consumer, period. That's the end.

Every resource we have needs to be devoted to that independent dealer so they have the resources to effectively market to that consumer because the independent dealer is going to compete against larger national players with more resources. Thus, the independent dealer needs to be aligned with a brand that gives him tools to be effective in his competitive endeavors. That is why everything from the introduction of our Falken Academy, bringing 4,000-8,000 dealers here to our home office to visit us and build that relationship, to our Falken TV initiative, all of our efforts aim to grow our associate dealer base. Every asset that we have is pointed to the independent dealer.

And if the independent dealer wants to be aligned with a reliable competitive brand, we believe our brand is in one of the best positions in the second tier.

What he doesn't need are brands he sells that are sold in every location possible with prices that don't allow him to make any money.

The consumer does not care about all this tire business noise. They simply own vehicles, they want to go to work, and they want to pick their kids up from school. That's what they want.

 

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