RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C.—The U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.7 percent through 2019, according to the “2016 Joint Channel Forecast Model” produced jointly by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and the Auto Care Association (ACA).
Aftermarket sales will grow to $296.3 billion in 2019 from $257.4 billion in 2015, the study shows, an increase of nearly $39 billion.
“The automotive aftermarket is a large and stable industry whose impressive growth, even through the Great Recession, is forecasted to continue,” said Bill Long, president and chief operating officer, AASA.
“The ‘Joint Channel Forecast Model' is a valuable tool for all industry stakeholders in planning and positioning your business to capitalize on the opportunities ahead.”
ACA President and CEO Bill Hanvey added: “The forecast model demonstrates that despite strong new vehicle sales, moderating gas prices and improved miles driven are conditions conducive to continued steady growth.”
As reasons for the growth, the study points to rising average age of light vehicles, now up to 11.6 years, and the age mix of vehicles continues to favor older vehicles, “creating a robust sweet spot for service and repair.”
The market sizing and forecast is conducted on behalf of AASA and the Auto Care Association by IHS Automotive, the renowned economic and market information firm. It is based on the U.S. Census Bureau's Economic Census, IMR and Polk data, and proprietary IHS Automotive's economic analysis and forecasting models.