WASHINGTON (May 29, 2015) — The U.S. automotive aftermarket will grow about 3.6 percent annually through 2018, according to the 2015 Joint Channel Forecast Model issued by the Auto Care Association (ACA) and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA).
Aftermarket sales will reach $284.3 billion in 2018, compared with $246.7 billion in 2014, the groups' forecast said, with rising prices accounting for roughly 80 percent of the growth.
The forecast model shows that the aftermarket can look forward to steady growth despite moderating gas prices and strong new vehicle sales, according to ACA President and CEO Kathleen Schmatz.
“The average age of vehicles, now up to 11.5 years, is the oldest ever, and the age mix of vehicles continues to favor older vehicles, creating a robust sweet spot for service and repair,” Ms. Schmatz said.
The report shows the groups expect the DIFM (do it for me) / DIY (do it yourself) ratio to stay stable at about 80/20 through the coming years.
IHS Automotive, the economic and market information firm, conducted the forecast for the ACA and AASA, the associations said. The projections are based on the U.S. Census Bureau's Economic Census, IHS and Polk data, and proprietary economic and forecasting models from IHS Automotive.