SOUTHFIELD, Mich. (Jan. 2, 2013) — Driven by an uptick in the compact, subcompact and pickup segments, new light vehicle registrations in the U.S. are expected to rise 6.6 percent to 15.3 million in 2013, according to R.L. Polk & Co. analysts.
In addition, North American production volumes are projected to grow to the 15.9 million unit range—an increase of 2.4 percent from 2012 figures—resulting from an improving economy and capacity expansion in the region.
According to the Polk analysis, U.S. new vehicle introductions will escalate dramatically this year, with 43 new vehicle introductions planned in 2013, up nearly 50 percent over 2012 levels. Also, 60 vehicle redesigns are expected in the coming year.
"Polk expects continued recovery in the industry in 2013 and 2014, a positive sign for the U.S. economy," said Anthony Pratt, director of forecasting for the Americas at Polk. "The auto sector is likely to continue to be one of the key sectors that lead the U.S. economic recovery; however, we don't expect to realize pre-recession levels in the 17 million vehicles range for many years."
Mr. Pratt added that Polk's baseline forecast "hinges on Washington's ability to draft a budget plan that will avoid $600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases."
Certain industry segments are expected to lead the increase in vehicle registrations.
The large pickup truck segment, which has declined over the past five years, is forecasted to grow with several important new launches in 2013 and into the 2014 model year, with General Motors, Toyota and Ford planning to showcase redesigned vehicles over the next 18-24 months. Increased marketing activity to support these launches, along with a recovering market for new housing starts—which impacts registrations of new pickup trucks within the construction industry—should result in growth in this segment, Polk said.
Polk added that the mid-size sedan segment, which currently holds more than 18.5 percent of the overall market, will continue to lead the industry and grow through 2013.
"Recent redesigns of nearly every vehicle in the mid-size segment are forcing more competition and continued growth," said Tom Libby, lead analyst for North America at Polk. "The current array of options for consumers in the market for a new mid-sized vehicle makes it a great time to buy a new car."
Polk also forecasts the industry will experience continued growth in the compact and subcompact segments, as OEMs are introducing several new models in the coming year. "This anticipated growth is largely based on increasing CAFE (corporate average fuel economy) requirements and significant new product launch activity in the U.S., as well as increased interest by younger buyers just coming into the market," Mr. Libby said.
The luxury segment in the U.S. will see significant launch activity within its compact sedan segment, which accounts for 2.9 percent of the overall industry, Polk said. In addition, non-luxury compact crossover vehicles have grown by more than 50 percent in the last five years. Increased competition in this segment has created pricing pressures, which Polk said will result in continued growth.
Only a slight improvement in hybrid vehicle registration in the U.S. is expected for 2013, despite an increase in the number of available models. Reasons for this include the continued significant price differential between hybrids and traditional vehicles and the high number of traditional vehicles that achieve similar mileage as those in the hybrid segment.