1. Fragmentation. Rathbone described the sector as "incredibly fragmented" and "ripe for consolidation by larger players" looking to build geographic coverage and scale. This leads to significant purchasing power and back-office synergies.
2. Tires and service/repair are "very much non-discretionary," Rathbone said. "People drive, and they need tires and service. They can't afford to be off the road in most cases. It's a repair and repeat purchase. Build brand loyalty and people will come back. They can't drive without tires."
And consider annual service that's tied to state inspections, he added.
3. Retail is a "strong margin business with a good cash-flow profile." Margins are quite healthy, especially on service, oftentimes 50% or 60%, he said. Combining that with a larger network purchasing — more units, getting better terms, better rebates — has a compounding effect. Overall, margins are quite good.
Many dealers also operate on a negative net working capital basis and are very good cash-flow machines, Rathbone noted.
"If you think about it, customers come in and pay you immediately. Credit card, cash or check. ... Unlike the wholesale commercial B2B with receivables, retailers carry very low receivable balance, exercise just-in-time or inventory purchasing habits and strategies that keep them light on that."
4. Accretion. The ability for larger retail players to acquire smaller networks, those with mid- to upper-high single EBITDA multiples, and then achieve an exit on what could be a significantly larger consolidated platform in the low to mid-teen EBITDA multiples.
5. Exit strategy. "You don't want to get into something you can't exit," Rathbone noted. "We've seen Mavis trade three times … continuing to trade up the private equity chain as they get larger," he said, adding that as the firm gets to scale, there's the option to go public. There also are logical, strategic buyers in the industry looking for meaningful-sized acquisitions to move the needle. All in all, good exit opportunities.
Private-equity investors are by nature opportunistic, he noted, meaning most firms look at an ownership window of at least two to three years and up to seven years before triggering their exit strategy. Ultimately market forces, excessive acquisitions and other factors will force that.